I was reading this book, "The Art of Thinking Clearly". Guess What, the first topic relates very much to the feeling I just shared with one of my friends a moment earlier. Whenever we think of something positive we think that it will happen or succeed. My friend told me about starting up on an idea and looked completely positive. We haven't questioned ourselves, why should this startup fail? We all read success stories that provides momentary motivation that carries us forward with our idea. I do understand that we have both risks and fortunes associated with any project. But the people who survived to enjoy those fortunes are not many and have been numbered in all those published books. Lets take a look at the success rate of startups for that matter. Estimates indicate that out of 10 projects, 3 to 4 fail completely while other 3 to 4 fail to produce returns. Of course, startups are risk takers and that should spark us to focus more evenly on risk assessment as much as we dwell on our idea. There was one of my friend who was more interested in stock trading. He left his job and got into trading business the whole time for about 6 months. He had to return back to his job having lost substantial amount. I am just saying that we should not be moved by the success rate of few while the lost ones are lost in memory sooner. Take a practical leap and get over this "Survivorship Bias". Many a times, asking negative questions sorts out the problem than 100 positive vibes. We can't always take a caluclated risk but getting prepared equally well for worst possibility without rushing up is prudent.
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